國內手機業(yè)面臨“缺芯”困境

科技Party

Tang Qi, a former phone dealer in Huaqiangbei, one of China’s largest smartphone grey markets in Shenzhen, has witnessed the ups and downs of the handset industry. But one thing is certain: business has always hinged on semiconductor chips.
深圳華強北是全球最大的智能手機灰色市場之一，前手機經銷商唐奇見證了該行業(yè)的起起落落。但有一件事是肯定的：業(yè)務好壞始終取決于半導體芯片。
Now, with the golden years of globalisation seemingly in the rear view, the country’s mobile phone industry is caught in the middle of a tech war that has seen the US and its allies ban exports of semiconductors used to power advanced smartphones, leaving the outlook far from certain.
當前，全球化的黃金歲月似乎已悄然逝去，美國及其盟友禁止出口先進的智能手機芯片，中國手機行業(yè)深受影響，未來蒙上了一層陰影。
From the turn of the century well into the 2010s, Huaqiangbei – an electronics district of 1.45 sq km (0.56 square miles) in the heart of Shenzhen – was the city’s most prosperous area. The latest mobile phones – genuine, smuggled or knock-off – could usually be found there, before being shipped all over the world.
從世紀之交到2010年代，位于深圳市中心、面積1.45 平方公里的華強北是這座城市最繁華的地區(qū)。無論是正品、水貨還是山寨機，在這里都可以找到，然后再運往世界各地。
Its fate, however, shows what can happen when access to high-end semiconductor chips becomes more difficult and domestic innovation falters.
然而，華強北的興衰表明，當獲得高端芯片日益困難且國內創(chuàng)新步履蹣跚時會發(fā)生什么。
“Before 2004, there were no counterfeit phones on the market,” Tang said. “Counterfeiting and knock-offs started to flourish in 2005 when MediaTek offered chips integrated with software, which made counterfeit mobile production easy.”
唐說，“在 2004 年之前，市場上沒有山寨機。2005 年，當聯(lián)發(fā)科開始提供軟件集成芯片時，山寨機開始盛行?！?br /> MediaTek, a Taiwan-based semiconductor design company, opened its technology to mainland China in 2003 amid warmer ties across the Taiwan Strait. In 2007, it joined the Google-led Open Handset Alliance with more than 80 global hardware manufacturers, software developers and telecoms operators to develop the Android system.
臺灣半導體設計公司聯(lián)發(fā)科2003年在兩岸關系升溫之際向大陸開放技術，2007年加入谷歌主導的開放手機聯(lián)盟，聯(lián)合全球80多家硬件制造商、軟件開發(fā)商和電信運營商共同開發(fā)安卓系統(tǒng)。
Access to the chip technology and operating system created opportunities for Chinese manufacturers, many of whom already provided components to big name foreign brands like Motorola and Nokia under original equipment manufacturer (OEM) agreements, to make their own phones. But the technology also led to a flourishing counterfeit market.
獲得芯片技術和操作系統(tǒng)為中國制造商創(chuàng)造了機會，其中許多制造商已經根據原始設備制造商協(xié)議向摩托羅拉和諾基亞等知名外國品牌供貨。但這也導致了繁榮的山寨市場。
According to Tang, tiny companies in Guangdong would buy a MediaTek chip loaded with software, source other components, and ask a factory to assemble them.
廣東的小公司會??購買裝有軟件的聯(lián)發(fā)科芯片，并采購其他組件，請工廠組裝。
“More than 80 per cent of the counterfeit mobile phones used MediaTek chips,” he said. “The only other things needed are a battery and a cover to make a phone labelled and to look like a Samsung or a Sony.”
唐說，“超過80%的山寨品使用聯(lián)發(fā)科芯片。只需換上電池和外殼，讓它看起來像三星或索尼?！?br /> During the heydays of his business, Tang had 20 Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines, producing all kinds of covers day and night for counterfeiting and knock-offs.
生意最好的時候，唐擁有20臺數控機床，夜以繼日地生產各種手機外殼。
Once home to tens of thousands of electronics companies, Huaqiangbei saw annual turnover top 120 billion yuan (US$17.4 billion) at its peak, between 2009 and 2011, the Shenzhen Economic Daily reported.
2009-2011年，華強北坐擁數萬家電子公司，年營業(yè)額達到1200億元人民幣。
In May 2010, monthly rental for a ground-floor shop in Huaqiangbei could cost more than 3,000 yuan per square metre – at a time when the city’s top luxury malls could only charge a few hundred yuan per square metre.
2010年5月，華強北底層商鋪月租金高達每平方米3000元。相比之下，當時深圳頂級購物中心租金只有幾百元。
However, the counterfeit mobile phone business began declining in 2012 because MediaTek’s chips could not match the technical prowess of the latest generation of smartphones, like Apple’s iPhone and Samsung’s Galaxy.
然而，山寨業(yè)務在2012年開始下滑，因為聯(lián)發(fā)科芯片無法匹配蘋果iPhone和三星Galaxy等最新一代智能手機。
“The chip, the core component of the latest generation of smartphones, became hard to copy, the copycat businesses just died away, as they could no longer replicate the high-end technology and sell it cheaply,” he said.
“芯片是最新一代智能手機的核心部件，難以仿制。山寨企業(yè)無法再復制高端技術并以低價出售，只能走向消亡?！?br /> The global smartphone market has in recent years been marked by periods of turbulence, most notably due to a shortage of chips, which China must import to power its high-end handsets. There are also concerns that domestic component suppliers could lose orders with multinationals, who are looking to diversify away from China amid heightened geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington.
近年來，全球智能手機市場經歷了一段時期的動蕩，最直接的原因是芯片短缺，而中國必須進口芯片制造高端手機。在北京和華盛頓地緣政治緊張局勢加劇的情況下，跨國公司正尋求將業(yè)務遷出中國，外界擔心國內零部件供應商可能會失去跨國公司的訂單。
Chips have emerged as a key battleground in the US-China tech war, because they power everything from electric vehicles to space shuttles. The US is choking China’s access to both semiconductor chips and the equipment producing them, allying with the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to restrict exports to the mainland.
芯片已成為美中科技戰(zhàn)的關鍵戰(zhàn)場，電動汽車、航天飛機等關鍵行業(yè)都離不開芯片。美國正在阻止中國獲取半導體芯片及生產設備，與荷蘭、日本、韓國和臺灣結盟以限制對大陸的出口。
Last year, Apple revealed its intention to move parts of its manufacturing process out of China and into emerging markets such as India and Vietnam after experiencing stringent Covid-19 curbs in mainland China.
去年，蘋果公司透露，在經歷了嚴格的疫情限制措施后，打算將部分生產線轉移到印度和越南等新興市場。
Apple’s major contractor, Taiwan-based Foxconn, has recently announced plans to create a major new factory in Vietnam after investing US$500 million in its Indian subsidiary last year. Foxconn’s Zhengzhou factory in the central province of Henan is the world’s largest iPhone assembly site, hiring as many as 300,000 employees and accounting for 50 to 60 per cent of Foxconn’s global iPhone assembly capacity.
蘋果公司的主要承包商、總部位于臺灣的富士康，去年向其印度子公司投資5億美元，最近又宣布計劃在越南新建一家大型工廠。富士康位于河南省的鄭州工廠是全球最大的iPhone組裝基地，擁有30萬名員工，占富士康全球 iPhone組裝產能的50%-60%。
Nevertheless, Tang remains optimistic.“The shifting of the industrial chain overseas has not been as easy as imagined, and most of the deep-processed raw materials are re-exported from China,” Tang said.
盡管如此，唐依舊保持樂觀?！爱a業(yè)鏈向海外轉移并沒有想象中那么容易，大部分深加工原材料都是從中國轉口?！?br /> “If the yield rate of high-end mobile phones produced in India and Vietnam is now about 50 or 60 per cent, it has to be increased by 200 per cent to approach the current yield rate of Chinese factories. This is a long process, which is why Apple is currently unable to leave China for the production of its latest iPhone series.”
“現在印度和越南生產的高端手機良品率在50%、60%左右，要接近中國工廠目前的良品率，還得提高200%。這是一個漫長的過程，也是蘋果目前無法離開中國生產最新iPhone的原因?！?br /> Chinese companies with operations in India will still play a key role in Apple’s plan to make some iPhones in the country, The New York Times reported in September last year. In Chennai, India, subsidiaries of Chinese companies will supply chargers and other components for iPhones, the newspaper reported, citing people familiar with the situation.
《紐約時報》去年9月報道，在印度開展業(yè)務的中國公司仍將在蘋果轉移iPhone生產線的計劃中發(fā)揮關鍵作用。該報援引知情人士的話報道稱，在印度金奈，中國企業(yè)的子公司將為iPhone供應充電器等零部件。
Zeng Liaoyuan, an associate professor of information and communication engineering at the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China in Chengdu, said difficulties for Chinese manufacturers will soon arrive and last for at least two decades before China can successfully madek advanced chips on its own.
電子科技大學信息與通信工程專業(yè)曾副教授表示，中國制造商的困難很快就會到來，而且至少會持續(xù)二十年，中國才能自主制造先進芯片。
“There have been talks [among academics] about changing the arena of competition [with the US]. In the manufacturing area, however, there’s no sector which can bypass chips,” Zeng said.“Crucial to the colossal telecoms industries and digital economy, China cannot abandon the smartphone sector. Only by motivating scientists, researchers and engineers to make innovations, will China be able to grasp chip-making technologies.”
“[學術界]一直在討論改變[與美國]的競爭領域。然而，在制造領域，沒有一個行業(yè)可以繞過芯片。芯片對于龐大的電信行業(yè)和數字經濟至關重要。中國不能放棄智能手機行業(yè)，只有激勵科學家、研究人員和工程師進行創(chuàng)新，才能掌握芯片制造技術?！?br /> Chinese companies will face an “innovate or die” situation amid fierce competition in 5G generation, a spokesman from one Chinese firm under US sanctions told the Post.
一家受美國制裁的中國公司表示，在5G時代的激烈競爭中，中國公司將面臨“要么創(chuàng)新，要么消亡”的局面。
John Kou, a veteran electronic engineer in his early 50s in Shenzhen, said China’s whole electronics sector would suffer if foreign high-end smartphone makers continue to diversify.
50歲出頭的深圳資深電子工程師 John Kou 表示，如果外國高端手機制造商繼續(xù)實施供應鏈多元化戰(zhàn)略，中國整個電子行業(yè)都會受到影響。
“Brands like Apple have actually driven the upgrading of China’s electronics industry chain over the years,” he said. “They set high process requirements, whether it is electronic components or screen glass. To secure their orders, Chinese factories are incentivised to invest into upgrading their production lines and training the workforce. If the foreign brands relocate abroad, China’s domestic demand alone is not enough to generate support for R&D and production of the next generation of high-end electronic products.”
“多年來，像蘋果這樣的品牌實際上帶動了中國電子產業(yè)鏈的升級。他們對工藝提出了很高的要求，無論是電子元件還是屏幕玻璃。為了保住訂單，中國工廠不得不投資升級生產線、培訓勞動力。如果跨國品牌搬遷到國外，單靠中國內需不足以支撐下一代高端電子產品的研發(fā)與生產。”
Liu Kaiming, head of the Institute of Contemporary Observation in Guangdong, attributed China’s rise as the world’s smartphone manufacturing hub to its complete supply chain, the existence of a large number of skilled workers and a huge domestic market.
廣東當代社會觀察研究所所長劉開明表示，中國之所以能崛起為世界智能手機制造中心，原因在于其完整的供應鏈、大量熟練工人和巨大的國內市場。
“The maturity of the supply chain is the biggest advantage of Chinese mobile phone manufacturing, and leaving China to reset the supply chain is actually a huge cost increase for brands,” said Liu, whose institute has been supervising supply chains in hundreds of OEM companies in China for two decades.
“供應鏈的成熟度是中國手機制造業(yè)的最大優(yōu)勢，將供應鏈遷出中國將導致成本大幅上升?！?br /> However, geopolitical changes are affecting the economic dynamics. As mobile phones are crucial to the ecology of China’s electronics industry, China should try to minimise political differences and maintain friendly trade relations with most countries, Liu said.
然而，地緣政治變化正在影響經濟動態(tài)。劉說，由于手機對我國電子產業(yè)生態(tài)至關重要，應盡量減少政治分歧，與大多數國家保持友好貿易關系。
“Southeast Asia is emerging as a new global manufacturing centre. China should use the established economic relationship with Southeast Asian countries to jointly build a supply chain with complementary advantages, synergistic efficiency, and mutual benefits,” he said.
“東南亞正在成為新的全球制造中心。中國應利用與東南亞國家已建立的經濟關系，共同打造優(yōu)勢互補、效率協(xié)同、互利共贏的供應鏈?！?br /> As of today, 90 per cent of Apple’s latest iPhones shipments are still made in China, Liu said, adding whether it is India or Vietnam, there is still no capacity for mass production of new iPhones elsewhere.
到目前為止，90%的最新款iPhone仍在中國制造。無論是印度還是越南，依舊沒有形成大規(guī)模生產能力。
But that could all change in three years’ time, with maybe 30 per cent of such production shifted from China, he said.
然而，三年后情況可能發(fā)生劇變，或有高達30%的產能離開中國。

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朱丫

為啥是三年后?良品率上來了?

隨風

西方降低工業(yè)鏈上對中國的依賴，中國則降低在市場和關鍵設備上對西方的依賴。鹿死誰手，走著瞧吧。

超級英雄

把路走窄了是關鍵原因。

甜甜圈

outlook  genuine, smuggled and knock off  high-end semiconductor  innovation falter 發(fā)o[doge]  counterfeit knock off  handset [抱抱][抱抱]

小怪

非常好！

考拉

當年紅軍長征時也不想爬雪山過草地，但好走的路上都埋著敵人的兵。時過境遷，霉帝已不想看著中國繼續(xù)做大，先手采取了圍堵政策，中國只好被動的出應手。

松14

紅軍不會相信，“時過境遷”后，還有人在玩{股票}、{房地產}這等資產階級聚斂財富的把戲！我們未能走出一條全新之路，這才是癥結所在！難道不是嗎[好奇][生氣]